Slumdog didn’t do as well as I had predicted, but it still was a decent positive move upwards. After some aggressive trading this week, I now have the port to over 3 million. There’s some decent money to be made this weekend, as three Oscar contenders go wide… Milk, The Reader, and The Wrestler. And then there’s Taken, which I think is going to do much better than the HSX price predicts. Here’s my analysis of the weekend openers. The quick summary : even with the Super Bowl, which will really hurt the Sunday numbers, EVERYTHING halting is a long.
I’m going to be putting everything in the openers, as opposed to playing the IPOs, since there’s really not a lot of interesting ones this weekend… the Saturday IPO is Moby Dick, which sounds ok. It’s got the director from Wanted and Night Watch. He’s kind of weird, and until this one gets a few stars attached it wouldn’t surprise me to see it fall into development hell and never actually see the light of day.
One thing I need to research this weekend is how the movies that open on Super Bowl weekend actually fare compared to their adust. Sunday’s numbers are going to be destroyed by the game, which may mean that the 2.7 adjust will be a little low… so it might not be a good idea to auto-short the openers after they adust like I usually do.
Milk (HMILK) : Currently at 28.35.
Expands to 882 theatres, so it will be adjusting to 3 x the weekend b.o. + the 22mil it’s already made. It’s hard for me to see this movie making less than $3,000/theatre… so I think a $2.5mil weekend is the low range and $5mil is the high range. If it does $2.5mil, it’ll adjust to 29.5 for a 4% ROI. If it does 5m, it’ll show a 30% ROI.
Verdict : I think this is a pretty safe long.
The Reader (READR) : Currently at 16.46.
Expands to 1002 theatres, getting the 3 x weekend + previous box office of 10.25mil. I can’t see this one doing less than 2mil this weekend, or more than 4mil. If it does 2mil, it’ll adjust to 16.25 for a wash. If it has a solid PSA of $4,000 (which I could see possibly happening, given the oscar buzz for Kate Winslet), it would adjust to 22.25 for an ROI of a whopping 35%.
Verdict : Might be a very nice surprise for the longers.
The Wrestler (WREST) : Currently at 23.69
Expands to 722 theatres, also getting the generous 3x adjust. I had the chance to see this movie, and it was good. But I don’t think it’s going to have a spectacular weekend. I’d be surprised if it could hold more than a 5,000 PSA with the expansion. A $3.5m weekend sounds about right to me. I think this movie will adust to 24.20.
Verdict : Slight long. Probably a wash and less than a point adjust.
Taken (TAKEN) : Currently at 47.04
This one is going very wide at 3183 theatres. Everyone I’ve asked has wanted to see this movie based on the preview, which is VERY well done and is being played over and over on every able show I’ve been watching. This looks like it is going to be a success story to me. I don’t see it doing less than 5,500 PSA, which is what it would need to do to make it’s current price. If it hits just $20mil, it’ll adjust to 54 for a 15% ROI. But if it blows everyone out of the water with a 10,000 PSA, we’re looking at a $31.8m weekend with an adust to 85.86 for an ROI of 82%. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility.
Verdict : This is where I’m putting my eggs. The risk is slim and the potential upside is HUGE.
New In Town (NTOWN) : Currently at 17.48
It’s only getting 1941 theatres, which is a bad sign. The 13% Rotten Tomatoes rating is even worse. But if Bride Wars can do a 6,000 PSA, I think this one can do at least a 4000 PSA, so I think it’ll do $8mil this weekend for a positive adjust. HSX certainly isn’t giving it a lot of credit. But Harry Connick Jr. was the first concert I ever saw… and that concert hall was packed. He has a following. So does Bridget Jones. I think it’s dangerous to bet against this movie.
Verdict : I think this one will upset a lot of HSX shorters and will adjust up to about a 20% ROI.
The Uninvited (UNVIT) : Currently at 28.68
It’s getting 2344 theatres and I can’t see any reason why this wouldn’t perform about the same as The Eye did, for about 5000 PSA and an $11.5m weekend.
Verdict : Long… will adjust up to 31 for a 9% ROI.
